USU Researchers Use Last Year's State-Record Snowpack to Investigate Predictive Models

More than 75 feet of snow in 191 days.

That’s what Alta Ski Area reported during the 2022-2023 season — beating the previous high, as calculated at the Collins Study Plot, by more than 150 inches. Across the state, snow totals accumulated to a high point of 30 inches of snow water equivalent — which broke a 40-year record by about 4 inches. By that same metric the state was, at times, more than 200% above the median snowpack.

This is all to say that from a statistical standpoint, the winter of 2022-2023 stood out.

Because of that, USU researchers wanted to know how it aligned with what predictive models forecast it would be. Climate science doctoral candidate Matthew LaPlante, with help from faculty members Luthiene Dalanhese and S-Y Simon Wang, investigated whether tropical ocean sea surface temperatures predicted the precipitation anomaly that hit the state in force. In other parts of the American West, this is a reliable connection that can forecast precipitation patterns — but they found that Utah doesn’t quite fit that same mold.

In this video, learn what the research team found, and why their findings are important for state planners, as well as for land and water managers. For the full study, visit Atmosphere.