Probability Origins
The study of probability didn't really take off in Europe until the 1600's. Its development was motivated by an interest in gambling and games of chance. But games like these have been around for millennia, so why did it take so long for people to get interested in probability? There are a number of factors that contributed to the late development of probability theory. Some of these are: a belief in luck, irregularly shaped dice, and the use of chance mechanisms in divination.
Luck
For a long time, the belief that luck was a trait inherent in each person influenced the way that people thought about probability. If luck was an individual characteristic then it wouldn't make sense to think about, say, the probability of rolling doubles when a person rolls two dice. The probability that a lucky person rolled doubles would be greater than the probability that an unlucky person does if rolling doubles is a desirable outcome. Thus, if luck is real, there is no way to objectively quantify the probability of rolling doubles. A belief in luck influenced many of the earliest writings on probability.
Divination
The use of chance processes in divination had an effect on probability theory similar to the effect of a belief in luck. Actions such as casting lots and rolling dice have sometimes been used in divination, that is, seeking to know the will of deity. Suppose a girl didn't know which of two marriage proposals she should accept, she could seek advice from a soothsayer or cleric who might toss some bones and look at the pattern in the way they fall to determine what the girl should do. The idea is that deity would direct the way the bones fell thus making his will known. If a person believes that deity is directing the fall of the bones or the roll of the dice, there is no point in looking for patterns that describe the outcomes.
Irregular Objects
Six-sided dice have been around for thousands of years. Dice have been found in Iran that date to 2500 to 3000 BCE. Dice-type games have been around even longer. Some such games were played with animal bones called knucklebones (also hucklebones or tali) that were tossed like dice.
The bones had distinct sides and players could earn points based on which side landed up. These bones were not only irregularly shaped, they also differed somewhat from one bone to the next. When more regularly shaped dice were available these still tended to vary somewhat from die to die. Because of this irregularity probababilities of certain outcomes varied from die to die, thus the probability of a particular outcome didn't have a consistent value.
Early Probabilists
Mathematicians began talking about probability in the late 1500's to early 1600's. However, some of the earliest writings about probability still contain mentions of luck.
Gerolamo Cardano
Gerolamo Cardano (1501-1576) was interested in many things including mathematics, medicine, chemisty, astrology, and gambling. His 'Book on Games of Chance' was written in the middle
1500's but was not published until nearly 100 years later. This book used processes from gambling, such as dice throwing, to demonstrate basic ideas of probability and is considered
the first book to contain a systematic treatment of the subject.
Pascal and Fermat
Blaise Pascal (1623 - 1662) was a French mathematican, inventor, and philosopher. Pierre de Fermat (1607 - 1665) was a French lawyer and amateur mathematician. He is considered the father of numbers theory and made important contributions to calculus and analytic geometry as well as probability. Pascal and Fermat began a correspondence in 1654 in which they discussed a problem in gambling (the problem of points) brought to them by Pascal's friend the Chevalier de Méré. This correspondence led to developments in probability theory and Pascal and Fermat are considered by many to be the founders of the discipline.
